THURSDAY, April 2nd, 2009 at 4.10pm, MSB 1147 (Colloquium Room) Refreshments: 3.30pm, MSB 4110 (Statistics Lounge)

Speaker: Bryan C. Weare (Dept of Land, Air & Water Resource, UC Davis)

Title: Structure of Stratospheric Wave Responses to ENSO Convection

Abstract: Generalized Maximum Covariance Analysis (GMCA) has been developed and applied to diagnosing the relationships between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tropospheric heating variations and variations in the tropical stratosphere (above ~12km). Maximum Covariance Analysis is described and compared to the comparable methodologies, Canonical Correlation Analysis and Extend Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (Principle Component Analysis). The current application of GMCA identifies the most important patterns of co-variability between interannual heating variations in the tropics in the upper troposphere and departures from the zonal means of velocities, temperatures, and ozone mixing ratios in the same region in the stratosphere. The results show a complex pattern of signal propagation. Firstly, over many months features at all levels propagate eastward. At the same time important features propagate quickly upward and to the the west.