THURSDAY, May 15^th, 2008 at 4.10pm, MSB 1147 (Colloquium Room)

 
Refreshments: 3.30pm, MSB 4110 (Statistics Lounge)

Speaker:        James Ramsay, (McGill University, Canada)

Title:              Modeling Change: Incorporating Dynamic Components into Data Analysis

Abstract:       We often need to understand how a system responds to a sudden change in input variables.  Is there a time lag before the system begins to change?  How quickly does the system adjust to the change?  Is this adjustment smooth, or are there transient effects such as initial negative responses or oscillations about the final level before the output settles down?  Our own “boy meets girl” memories are a handy source of examples.

A short introduction to a new method for fitting models defined by differential equations or dynamical systems to noisy data will be offered. 

A variety of interesting data, including smallpox deaths in Montreal, mudslide conditions in Vancouver, symptom flares for the disease lupus, and predator-prey population dynamics will be used to illustrate various things that we have learned from fitting data with dynamical systems.

Jim Ramsay -- McGill University

David Campbell, Jiguo Cao – Simon Fraser University

Giles Hooker – Cornell University